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The lesson is simple: gambling still attracts capital when the money is visible. It is less attractive when the payoff lies far in the distance.

The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.

Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

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However, punters can still get their betting fix through the country’s official toto system, which offers authorised products covering soccer and basketball.

Under Japan’s penal code any betting that creates the possibility of gaining or losing property on a matter whose “outcome depends upon chance” may constitute gambling.

Online gambling more broadly remains illegal, with no sign of legalisation in either the short or long term. If anything, the government appears to be moving further away from the activity, and is actively considering website blocking to prevent illegal gambling in the country.

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German authorities have conducted a major crackdown on an alleged illegal online gambling operation suspected of facilitating wagers totalling approximately €5.86 billion over a 30-month period. 

According to the German Press Agency, the Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office, together with the Frankfurt tax investigation unit, the State Office for the Combat of Financial Crime in North Rhine-Westphalia and Frankfurt police, executed coordinated searches across 11 premises on Tuesday.

Over 100 officers participated in the operation. Authorities seized several high-value vehicles, froze numerous bank accounts and imposed an asset restraint order valued at around €82 million. An arrest warrant was also executed.