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She said the government would receive a report every six months on illegal gambling advertising across these platforms. 

The KVA’s statement mirrors a broader European regulatory trend where authorities are increasingly scrutinising how major internet platforms facilitate traffic to unlicensed gambling services.

In Sweden, Spelinspektionen recently flagged affiliates and social media as key channels for black market advertising and how affiliate networks redirect search traffic towards unlicensed operators.

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This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.

“It’s not a dark alley,” he continues. “It’s a large operator that’s regulated in other places, so it’s not the risk for the player that sometimes is implied.”

With the central challenge of tax to compete with, operators face a test of whether they can maintain growth while remaining competitive in an increasingly fierce market.

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“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”

Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.

Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”