Cash Explorer

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The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”

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“There are significant checks on individuals and businesses before a licence is granted,” he says. “The UK Gambling Commission has set out what it expects. If you want a licence in the UK, you need to meet those expectations.”

Bentley believes regulated operators are genuinely trying to do the right thing but says some mistakes could be mitigated through better automation and continuous monitoring. Enforcement statements also provide lessons that businesses should use to test their own exposure.

“It would be crazy to say that these cases are positive for the industry,” he says. “They will no doubt continue, but as an industry we need to try to reduce their frequency.”

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The Commission’s annual Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB), released on Thursday, indicated stable gambling participation patterns among 5,277 adults surveyed between January and May 2026.

Around 49% of the adults surveyed said they had gambled within the past four weeks, a figure consistent with previous years. 

When excluding those who only played lottery draws, participation stood at 28%, implying lottery-only players comprised roughly 21% of the adult population.